How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle (Principles)
by Ray Dalio
View on GoodreadsBridgewater founder Ray Dalio's continuation of his "Principles" series — applying his big-cycle framework to sovereign debt, with the United States as the central case study and the warning thesis.
Core ideas
- The "Big Cycle" framework: countries pass through predictable phases of debt accumulation, currency debasement, social conflict, and order replacement, on roughly 50-100 year arcs that compound across centuries.
- The US is treated as late-cycle by Dalio's measures — debt-to-GDP, interest costs, political polarization, and reserve-currency vulnerability all trending in directions historically associated with the late phase.
- The fix is treated as politically improbable but technically known — fiscal restraint, productivity gains, debt restructuring under controlled conditions — and Dalio's framing throughout is preparation rather than prevention.
Published2025
Pages400
ISBN9781501124068
ReadJun 2025
