Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
by Graham Allison
View on GoodreadsHarvard scholar Graham Allison's framework book on the structural risk of war between a rising power (China) and a ruling power (US) — drawing on his historical-pattern study of 16 prior rising-power confrontations, 12 of which ended in war.
Core ideas
- The "Thucydides Trap" framework: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the structural pressures (rising-power demand for status, ruling-power fear of decline) make war more likely than either side's preferences alone would suggest.
- The historical case data (the 16 cases) is the book's empirical anchor; Allison is careful that the framework predicts elevated risk, not deterministic outcome — the four that avoided war did so through specific choices.
- The contemporary US-China case has the unusual feature of nuclear weapons, economic interdependence, and ideological asymmetry — the precedents have analytical value but no perfect parallel.
Published2017
Pages364
ISBN9780544935273
ReadAug 2025
